If you have ever visited any decent betting site, you have probably already heard of terms such as “value bet” or “value betting”.

Explaining terms “value bet” and “value betting” is everything but easy. If you ask 5 punters what do they think value bet is, you will probably hear 5 different answers. One will tell you that value bet is backing Hull to win at Old Trafford at price of 35.00; some other will say it is horse priced at 50/1 to win the race; and finally some might say that backing Manchester United to beat Hull at Old Trafford at 1.12 represents value bet; and so on and so on.

Answering the question of value bet and value betting is difficult, and there is no right answer. Everyone has its own philosophy and the right answer comes with one’s own betting experience, probably after years of looking for value.

Statistics and probabilities are terms closely related with value bet and value betting, but I’m sure there are lots of punters making profit with their bets even if they don’t know anything about mathematics, of complicated statistical models. But those who are profitable with their betting without much looking into science have their own methods of finding value in their bets – some are spending hours and hours looking for information about event they are looking to bet on, some are just following their guts and experience. But even those intuitively know when the bet is value and when is not.

But let’s get back to statistics and mathematics and explain basics of value betting on simple example. Let’s say you are flipping the coin and you’re backing head or tail. Chances that you’ll win your bet are 50% in any case, whether you back head or tail. In other words, whatever you back, you have equal chances to win the bet. If you’re reading this, you probably know that fair odds for head or tail are also equal, and both are 2.00 or 1/1. This means that if you bet £10 on head and you win your bet, you will get your £10 back, plus another £10. If you lose your bet, you will lose your £10.

If you’re going to bet on head 1000 times, you will probably be level after at the end, i.e. you won’t win or lose anything.

And what if I give you odds 2.10 for head? The chances for head or tail are still equal, and you will accept the bet without thinking. Why? Because you will have better value for money, and after backing head for 1000 times again, at odds of 2.10 you will end in profit without any doubt. If I offered you 1.90 for the same bet, you would probably say – No, thanks.

So, the value betting is related with ratio between odds offered and your chances to win the bet, not only with odds.

Difference between punter who is looking for value and punter who is looking for winners is big. Most of the punters will probably back Manchester United against Hull, at any price, assuming that Manchester United are too good and too strong and that are probably going to win against Hull. Is the price 1.10 or 1.20 – it doesn’t matter. But even biggest teams on Earth don’t always win, and in 10 matches between Manchester United and Hull, Manchester United is probably not going to win them all. And if you backed them 9 times at 1.10 and 10th time they don’t win the match, you’re going to lose you money.

Punters who are looking for value don’t have problem to back Hull against Manchester United if they think they have right price. If one thinks that Hull have 5% chances to win against United, and bookmaker offers odds of 25.00, than by principle of value betting, he should take that offer and back Hull.

Punter who is looking for value will win in the long run. Does he win 50% of his bets at average odds of 2.15, or 5% of his bets at average odds of 25.00 – it really doesn’t matter – value betting wins at the end.